Guest column Sohu can talk prices, economists misappropriating other hot issues (Record)
Source: Sohu Finance
Moderator: Good evening netizens Sohu, Sohu welcome guests chat room.
Moderator: users Hello everyone, am very pleased to be invited to the National People's Congress Hong Hong teacher guest column Sohu Finance Channel, Hong teacher told us first of all say hello to the majority of users.
Hong Kezhu: Good evening netizens, very honored to be able to Sohu guests, with the surfers hope that through communication, to the reality of our national problems in political life, or the focal point of encounter between the two organizations, to put forward their views and suggestions.
Moderator: two proposals this year , referred to on this house, noticed that you mentioned last year is also the price, to raise the proportion of down payment, this year's proposal, users can simply elaborate on us.
Hong Kezhu: general real estate issues on this year mainly two issues, because prices continue to rise, the phenomenon should be said that a long time, has become China's economic and social life in one of the focus of the so-called focal point of the three people's livelihood, is one of the high prices First, the problem of high prices, then we have been concerned about, because a series of measures sought to curb price rise, but the result was a last run out of the very few outside the city, most of all cities the rise. but Shanghai's price cuts, especially some of the larger luxury residential price cut, put down the average price. In fact in general residential above, house prices still rising in Shanghai. the situation of rising house prices and house prices rapid rise in status has not changed. as representatives of the people, the people most wish is to be able to afford housing, there is room to live, to how the high price level down, which is our biggest problem. According to such a problem , last year put the proposal on the proposal this year to mention last year, added an element of housing last year's proposal is to abolish pre-sale system, cancel the sale of our national housing system and increase the down payment ratio of the proposal, this year two recommendations, adhere to these two, while increasing that only the establishment of a self-help housing loans bankrupt. The second condition proposed high prices constitute a very important reason is that land prices, house prices are far higher Because land is intrinsically linked to a sudden rise. Now because of rising land prices is that the process of sale of land use linked to strokes in the form of investment, receive land transfer, land prices continue to push to such a problem, to make a suggestion Government to terminate the transfer of land use system, leasing the way to collect and use of consistent, the property tax proposal, the two proposals on the current real estate scene in the current situation, I think that will still play a particularly important role.
Moderator: Hung teachers, we note that in January this year the national housing data, said Beijing in January last year with an increase of 9.9%, ranking the second, some real estate developers such as Pan Shiyi, the famous (Pan Shiyi blog, Pan Shiyi news, Pan Shiyi say), Mr. Ren (Ren news, Ren say) believe that one of Mr. A big reason is that Beijing's real estate market in short supply, so prices are too high result. how do you view this issue?
Hong Kezhu: because the Chinese real estate market is not a very long, but the real estate development has been relatively fast, relatively fast development of the important things is to standardize the management, human management, in this case, I think the real estate in addition to meeting the needs of the community and provide people in need of residential, there exist investment, on the shortage in Beijing, we made a detailed investigation, we have this phenomenon, many residential buy After the purchase may be speculative, and the second is the problem of investment, to investment products, in which the sale to earn interest. As speculation speculative and investment issues, on the surface seems in short supply. the second because of the scale, Beijing very fast urban development, the expansion of the scale, in this case, the real estate needs focused, there is a Buzhi Yu prices soaring, the current Beijing real estate prices, the industry price is high prices.
Moderator: There is a view that is in addition to supply and demand, another piece of land supply shortage of housing prices in Beijing also contributed to the rapid growth of the important reasons?
Hong Kezhu: land issues or just the price issue, the shortage of land is no doubt also the supply and demand, the house is less than supply and demand supply and demand, in a word, as if in the middle of a market economy, prices are determined by supply and demand factors, but I'm not entirely agree with this view. Supply and demand is indeed a market economy, the role of prices is large. But I think as a very important domestic products, in addition to general attributes of goods, there are public goods, property, should it is the people's basic needs, housing needs are, we believe that the most important basic needs eat and drink to live. Survival is the first and survival after first developed, it is the most fundamental human rights issue, so the real estate with such a demand. This demand requires real estate supply and demand can not simply conscious approach to the formation of prices , it should be said that the Government should regulate to meet the vast number of people, especially the middle and lower basic needs of the people, to have room to live in the major issues. This is a major issue for sustainable development. the so-called people-centered sustainable development is , people-oriented is to meet basic needs, from this perspective, simply say that house prices rose less than the supply and demand, in addition to general merchandise property as a special commodity, a public character, the government should take responsibility to regulate, is critical.
Moderator: Beijing proposed to be completed within three years ;, do you think the plan is complete, you really have to push down home prices?
Hong Kezhu: If the size of the city to control, as the Prime Minister in the government report for the scale of urban development to be controlled, not free limit development to appropriate controls, to scientifically control the scale of urban development. In this case, Beijing to take a certain amount of low-rent housing, coupled with a certain amount on behalf of affordable housing, by the government to regulate or be led by the government . If the scale in accordance with the central city of the Prime Minister report, in accordance with the requirements of central planning, the city can reasonably control the size, to take a certain proportion of low-rent housing, a certain proportion of affordable housing, to carry out supply, adjust the housing supply structure to the stability of prices or to return reasonable prices, will play a role. but will not play a fundamental role, which is difficult to say, that ten million low-rent housing enough, now a major premise is enough not enough, Beijing is very difficult, fundamental human needs can not afford a house, this is the first question.
second, one million square meters of housing enough to afford a house but can not afford large a house, is just out to work near difficult young people and families who, a little purchasing power, but who can not buy a big house, the needs of this group enough. If that can meet the needs of this group, then I that house prices can be. to meet the needs, it will not cause prices to rise. If not, the gap is too large, and some for speculation, investment, speculative, is not enough already, and then invest, then speculation, I think prices down, the possibility is not great.
prices down another difficult issue, but also because land prices, a very large land concerned, so this year I have a very important recommendation is to change the land use in a way to receive transfer payments into the property tax, property tax collected in the form of long-term, so that land prices in the housing costs become significantly reduced, prices will naturally be lower down. The situation in Beijing, now if the two one- do okay in the end, not say, but certainly have a role. This role will not be able to play a fundamental change, it would not speak.
Moderator: just say the property tax, the famous economist Fan Gang (Fan Gang News, Fan Gang, say) also said that early introduction of property tax, can effectively curb excessive speculation in real estate. We saw yesterday reported that the former deputy director of the State Administration of Taxation, Yang Chongchun said that means if you want to use the tax prices down is not easy, because the developers profit, certainly continue to develop real estate, the increase in house prices in the relevant tax burden reduced, so that consumers bear, how we view the role of property tax?
Hong Kezhu: land use right transfer, transfer fee in the form to make major changes, from the original one-time charges, with the use of consistent charge approach, the developer of the development, the first cost of land to pay for greatly reduced, taxes It is not paid, the consumer is in the future, that is, people pay to buy a house, and he is only to pay the land compensation fee is compensation for land acquisition or land development in the middle of some of the costs. so than the cost of a sale, with a move to compete with the form of investment linked to the land means much much lower, much lower than after, the land cost is very transparent, and land prices up costs are very transparent, and construction costs are very transparent. a residential Once laid down, and construction costs to settle down, and in this case, the total cost of real estate is very certain, our country has anti-unfair competition law, which has a very key question is to prevent profiteering, against profits In this case, the real estate developers have a reasonable profit is fine, but then engage in excessive profits can not because this time is more sunlight, and its cost is relatively light, and the price should be said that the situation can be control, and can be measured, go to the pursuit of profits, it would violate the law. So I think that the former leadership of the State Tax Administration of the tax effects mentioned more difficult, I am afraid there is a combination of several aspects, the first Tax measures taken, and the second is about the unfair method to conduct the implementation of the relevant price control authorities should be strictly monitored, the urban management departments should be strictly monitored. In addition to the above supply in reasonable supply, the supply of residential structure comparison reasonable, and the second is a more reasonable amount of supply, in this case, I think that the form of property tax will play a more significant role.
Moderator: According to the just understanding the meaning of the entire real estate costs may be reduced by tax. Is it possible to lower the threshold into the real estate, developers and more, providing more house products?
Hong Kezhu: also possible, because the most important means that the one-time purchase of land leasing, and transfer payments to tendering, in the form of auction, the highest bidder, so that land prices continue to go up. set the state tax, a city set a tax rate, this set is dead, there is no rising. And the time to pay into a few decades or even centuries We also raised another issue, wants the state to property from 40 years of building products, more than 50 years to a century, so the amount of annual tax burden not help the real estate business came to be borne out by the owner. This the situation greatly reduces the premium in the price level or lower in the greatly reduced a lot. significantly reduces the cost of land, construction costs are controlled, the total price to become can be controlled, the overall price control , is significantly reduced in the case of land. This can be controlled, prices are bound to greatly decreased, and it will reach a more reasonable price level, that is, rational price levels. so the real estate business can make money, but not may then make huge profits, not like now, let's rich list last year of assessment, real estate accounted for six, as this will not happen after that huge profits are earned money consumers should not be adopt a method of unfair competition money.
Moderator: Hung teacher, you are very experienced in the construction industry as an expert, and now we know that there are in Wenzhou have emerged in Beijing cooperative housing model, which is to private investment, bidding land to build your house yourself, how do you look at this issue?
Hong Kezhu: private venture housing model, not the programming model, there was always concerned, not a promising model. I said, Real estate development should be said that the middle of residential development, it has a special nature of the goods, a general condition of goods is the market price, but, more important issue is part of public property, so the government should strictly control the government responsibility, the responsibility of the majority of the people, a duty to proceed fairly and solve the housing problems of the people. Since it is such a situation, the Government as a national right to engage in this area can manage it, it has a role in regulating the purchase, As can regulate the purchase, the parties must be able to resolve the difficulty. Second, land is scarce resources to real estate is concerned, why do against real estate profits, it is necessary to adjust the housing supply structure and reasonable purpose that is not the public is result of scarce resources into real estate development enterprises a means of profiteering, not to become some of the rich or those who have money to invest and speculation mercenary ways, this scarce resource is shared by all, in this situation, I think a partnership to develop private, cooperative housing, I think the whole, the regulation can not solve the problem of buyers on the rational use of scarce resources of land and arrangements, it is difficult to achieve. In this sense there are still waste. because the cooperative housing have a question, is it under control, the so-called cooperative housing, government-controlled building is to build middle and low houses, small and medium size house, but only a set of such houses, housing is a joint venture who have money, who can buy, anyone can build more, anyone can build a large, land resources are scarce resources, who have money who can not invest in foreign money, Can the Chinese bought the land, to meet the Home Ownership Scheme, to meet the majority of people have room to live. if a joint building, housing situation is more complicated because the joint venture, and some may be built a house with some investment behavior, it may be several sets may be the pursuit of luxury, the pursuit of luxury, it is regulation.
Moderator: We see a cooperative housing project in Miyun, the local price is five or six thousand square meters, cooperative housing Only three thousand pieces per square meter, the price is cheap.
Hong Kezhu: Why is the price a lot cheaper, just like real estate profits, this may not be, because the joint housing, we assigned a house, the so-called interests of the housing owned by each joint venture, each person is actually a joint venture housing developers, developers profits is reflected in each joint top of his house builders, this did not have. but it is out of a problem, a joint venture housing becomes uncontrollable, rational use of land is not the problem, it may build the big house, big room, probably more than one set, not a set of two, this situation is not suitable for our country to the protection of scarce land resources, protection of the land. Second, we now advocate does not meet a first solution to solve a housing problem. If this situation continues, I think it will create new problems. the question is who the new joint venture construction money Shui room, who can more than buy a house, who can more land, to become dominated by money and public property in the residential market has.
Moderator: There may be another piece of investment products into the rich, because investment even lower cost.
Hong Kezhu: lower investment costs, and can go to the secondary market to sell a resale. This is not in our policy on real estate development, not suitable for China's national conditions.
Moderator : Some experts say is a historical retrogression, does not meet the economic laws.
Hong Kezhu: I think that this is indeed not consistent, not only inconsistent with our policies, in particular, we do not meet the strict protection of current land policy, does not meet in our on the middle of residential development, the first house to meet a set of such a policy. In such cases, hoarding may also be the emergence of new homes, and more than one set, one sets, the basic needs into speculation and investment behavior, this situation occurs, this is the case, we solve the housing problem of the basic trend in solving the basic needs of people tend to run counter.
Moderator: Hung teachers, we have seen last year on the national macro-control in the price is introduced Many policies, including eight early in the country last year, terms of restrictions on foreign buyers, as well as aspects of land value increment tax.
Hong Kezhu: Last year saw a total of relevant state ministries and commissions of more than 20 items out of the policy on real estate.
Moderator: do you think these policies effective?
Hong Kezhu: These policies have some effect, is the rise in property prices, house prices continue to rise, but the magnitude of increase slowed down, in front of more than years, has slowed. But prices continue to rise the situation has not fundamentally changed, that there is a lag effect of these policies, the other problem is the root cause of high prices not good remedy. I personally believe that China's current real estate market in the middle, I am afraid that the high price of four reasons, one is the system of institutional reasons, or reasons, in the 90's, the reform of our system, the housing into the market, in the middle of the reform, the central government administrative departments of the original the idea is still relatively good, or that the original vision of the system, the kind of policy is consistent with the reality in China, or China's development trend, was raised in the housing system reform, the Chinese real estate market is divided into the three cases, a species of a group of low-cost housing is built, while there are a large number of general real estate affordable housing, in addition to a number of high-end residential construction. This is probably based on the middle of the Chinese people to meet the 5% to 10% of the population is very poor, can not simply buy a house people into the rent. about 70%, 80% have some purchasing power, can not buy a big house but can only buy a small house, but look at the situation from now on family planning in China, bought a house too small to meet the demand, especially the younger generation. There are about 10% is to get rich first, and these people can live the big house, luxury. in front of low-rent housing should be the government supply, affordable housing or housing for the general government regulation or government with common real estate problems. 高档房 Another is to completely develop their own real estate business. If you take such a system, such a policy to meet, prices can be controlled, low-cost government housing rent can control, we can solve different levels of the real estate needs, so prices will not soar, but the problem appeared in the original system design, system design, with full commercialization of the real estate market, complete After release, the original vision can not be achieved, and real estate have turned into market commodity, just as an ordinary commodity. In this case, the real estate developers in pursuit of profit maximization, can not engage in low-rent housing, not to engage in affordable housing, as affordable housing suggests that it is relatively low prices, low profits, especially in the government increasing land prices, land price pegged to the tender form, after the premium increase, not to engage in low-rent housing or affordable housing. Most of the final result of the evolution of the market into high prices of the large size luxury house. Even if a small number of medium and small size of the house, due to the big house, luxury house prices go up, natural driving up the price of medium and In addition, because the supply of a small number of demand, in this case, institutional shortcomings, the middle of a residential real estate prices remain high, as a very important question raised.
Second, policy contradiction. the most basic policy of our country is very clear, there are two, a land the government, the most stringent protection of land, land policy involves the question of future generations, how to feed a large population of their own future, the problem can not be easily built the big house, golf course, in this form to supply the land. The second thing we call the scientific development, people-oriented, the key is fair, to meet the needs of most people. This is the basic policy. But now specific policies and a change to occur, just talking about specific policies, land in real estate development process, the Government had taken a sale of land, with the market mechanism in the form of bidding, auction, highest bidder, a charge transfer Kim, constantly pushing up land prices, pushing up land prices continue to approach, to the government brought a huge income, that is, land sales revenue to solve the problem of government expenditure. sell the land to become a major and important government financial channels. It should be said in many cities become a very important part, so keen to sell to the government, so that the impact of the problem of protecting the land, but also to many landless peasants living, the development has brought great difficulties. the other one, the city the problem of sprawl there. In this case, there's the rise in land prices, the real estate business naturally have an excuse, as land prices rise, constitute an integral part of the house, bound rates to go up, but prices still go faster. In this case, the government increased the premium received from the relatively large income, to not go to control real estate prices. real estate developers low price. in specific policy on such major initiatives have taken place.
middle of another pre-sale system specific policies, that is, pre-sale policy. a house not yet built out, the house or even just beginning to build and sell, how much money the developer can not develop, can be carried out for profit, continue to be developers, and even real estate speculators, investors who have hoarding house, hoarding of land, put up the prices a lot of land speculation. the Chinese government to resolve the majority of people a house.
the third game of interest stands to reason that the Chinese government represent the interests of the people, he is to serve the government, on behalf of the people's government, Logically speaking, his interest is the interests of the people, but now the people's interests, each person had to live in housing or that the form of rental housing with low-cost or more remote can afford a house, it is the people's fundamental interests. Government is the sale of land, driving up land prices and pushed up housing prices, in this case, people not to buy house prices high, can not afford to buy a house, so that the interests of people of course, with the Government's interest is getting the same turn, the government interests with the interests of real estate developers are basically the same, and land prices rise, real estate stood on a piece of fleece, real estate agents to price Tuishang Qu, prices Tuishang Qu, the Government can collect taxes. the central parts of the macro-control policy, not how to do everything possible to implement macro-control policies difficult to receive benefits because of interest in the middle, because such a situation, the local government in the interests of the above, the occurrence of one kind of misplaced. This, of course, I think the deeper reason why the people's government of the people in the interests of the game with the middle of the room real estate development dislocation of the middle of such a big place, mainly local and central government powers and financial authority on the match, the match took place properly. the central government in the 90's through the tax system reform, central government finances in a relatively large financial authority, local government corresponding revenue in the country the proportion of revenue accounted for less than, but most of the policies the central government by local government by that powers continue to increase, increasing the responsibility of things, but its financial power, in order to complete these responsibilities, in order to improve these things, but not much revenue, not enough or they do not operate, support their operation, so the local government through land sales approach, the other short-term behavior by individuals, the pursuit of personal achievement behavior more actively to sell to the.
the supply structure of the fourth is a serious deformity, the supply of housing mostly high-end houses, the government rarely done strictly middle and low house, small house. The four reasons to cause the real estate has long been the result of rising house prices. Despite macro-control policies continue to come out, but the real reason for these policies is also small, and the reasons for these policies rarely studied.
Moderator: Your suggestions on house prices, in accordance with the legal process where one step of?
Hong Kezhu: You have to pay up, according to the different areas of the NPC, to the different departments concerned. But there is a I think that on the healthy functioning of the Chinese real estate market problems, high housing prices on the Chinese real estate issues, has become a concern for all, the central government is highly concerned about, the Central Government will seriously study the behalf of members recommendations will listen closely to the voice of the people on the housing prices are now constantly faced with, essentially to take measures, as China's top real estate market in housing supply, its price can be rational regression. For example in the end down what extent the price rise down to rise or to what extent, I think the name is swinging back, the so-called rational is the real cost of return plus a reasonable profit, as a price ratio, as the supply of real estate prices. This is swinging back. to out of the profits, the government removed the process of selling land to raise the premium, one-time driving up land prices.
Moderator: Hung teacher, you suggested this, there are too many compared to last year with the capital markets relations, the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission on issuers referred to issuance examination committee, the responsibility of members of the audit of previous recommendations, the conduct of our users can elaborate?
Hong Kezhu: It should be said that the Chinese several sensitive issues and focus problems, Although the stock market problems that have not yet become the focus of the three major problems or three people's livelihood, but it is also in the opinion polls, is also a problem in several markets, from China's stock market since its establishment, in the tortuous development of the middle, came to be. Now, of course gradually expand the scale, but came to the course is very tortuous course, the majority of retail investors in China, it may also very sad. This process, in the Chinese stock market is established, the development process, there are many departure from the listed companies listed on the basic principles, they did not meet listing requirements, from the capital market is not the result of his financing in order to better enhance the competitiveness of enterprises, enterprise's comprehensive strength, better able to profit, to return the majority of investors. found out that they think is not very good, the listed company can achieve through the means listed on the packaging qualification, and then grabbing the money from the stock market, with deceptive misappropriating, circle the majority of investors money, is listed, but also by the number of person's advocate, a misleading, misleading, or asymmetric information in good faith of a non-advocacy, have led many investors to purchase, purchase, because of the company itself is not good, or even a lot of garbage company, is take the money and the future , due to their management, other aspects of the problem, many companies still did not improve performance, even in heavy en crisis, difficulties, some went bankrupt. So for the majority of shareholders losses are huge. Many hard-earned money into the stock market among people, among virtually evaporates.
Moderator: Hung teacher, ask you, do you stock up?
Hong Kezhu: I do not have stock, because I was on the Chinese stock market, one do not bet, the second is see through, and the third is no money to stocks, also very worried. Now we see the situation a little better, but can not guarantee that the future can not occur, because the result of reason, but also to explore also need to appreciate it. Why China's stock market the past 20 years there will be ups and downs of major twists and turns of it, why are there so many junk companies to market, in the end the reasons for these problems if not solved, then, who can guarantee the future stock market Club Health development? although that is now also the reform, but also effective, of course, should be said that the stock market recently, re-opening, there have been twists and turns of the situation, to bring the signal to the majority of investors are scared. According to the parties concerned that drastic fluctuation of the internal situation is not the reason China's stock market, the reason is because the international market, regardless of the international market or domestic reasons, somehow there still exist many uncertainties in terms of the factors.
as the majority of Internet users, in particular, As the majority shareholders have a problem, though China's stock market risk investment, but in the middle of venture capital, an incorrect and unhealthy factors can not be removed, can not guarantee that no traps, no one's trap, in which case he accession to the WTO, despite the risk, but he believes such risks are worth taking, and if there's a trap, there are a variety of human factors at work, it is unpredictable. shareholders worried that the dissatisfaction of the past starting , I think the healthy development of China's financial markets, I think it is necessary due to the reasons for the situation of the past to prosecute, conduct a review. presents a reference. In the past the formation of the reasons why the stock market, play a major role in issuance examination committee, listed the company through the issuance examination committee must be a key threshold, through the issuance examination committee of the audit to the market. Many of these companies are taken public relations approach, the so-called public relations the way people look for issuance examination committee is aware, access to, the feeling dissatisfaction. The second question, some understanding of issuance examination committee members assumed issuance examination committee process, and also concurrently with or his relatives engaged in transactions with the listed companies and associated related work, which gives Chinese people a signal that the listing of these companies may be inextricably linked with the issuance examination committee, has interests. the third question previous issuance examination committee members, some members, through the issuance examination committee, after serving in special positions, do they assets, their wealth, are rapidly being gathered, their rate of accumulation of wealth than the wealth of China's growth rate of some companies, even more than monopoly faster growth rate. It had to give Chinese people a strong signal, that just do more of their wealth, legally do, clean up, the stock market to the situation of China's past have a significant connection? have to mention these issues. In order to further the development of China's stock market historical truth, and to send the trial Committee members have real or innocence, to the vast number of shareholders or the majority of the people accountable, but also important for the healthy development of China's stock market, we proposed the issuance examination committee of the successive previous members have the responsibility of the audit by the national organizations, the majority of issues of concern to the people after the audit, to ascertain non-issuance examination committee members is also very good on account of and protected. State audit in the last issue, the only error or dereliction of duty, that is another issue. If you find out problems to deal with the issue in accordance with. should be corrected. will never repeat. The issuance examination committee members, from academic terms, figures from the research are the master or dean level characters.
Moderator : Your suggestions were referred to Li Yining (Li Yining News), Professor, Professor Li Yining is the dean of the economics profession, has criticized the proposed Li Yining teacher that he and several other economists in the stock market heavyweight misappropriating, Why do you aim to Professor Li Yining this contradiction?
Hong Kezhu: In the draft recommendations, we write the name of Li Xiansheng, and now a formal proposal to pay up, and put the name of Mr. Li Yining did not write it out. Why the original draft it be? mainly based on a mainstream media that is associated with the transaction or the related news. To illustrate the previous issuance examination committee members at the middle of that there are problems, the process of development in China's stock market there are so many problems in the past, in order to illustrate the problem, according to the disclosure of the mainstream media, a report Therefore, I recommend the manuscript, to write the name of Mr. Li Yining. In this proposal, put the name of Li Xiansheng remove the. My purpose is to keep ...
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